Treasury Chief Insists ‘No Recession in 2026’ And Says Inflation Isn’t Caused by Trump’s Tariffs
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted on Sunday that the U.S. is not on track for a recession in 2026, projecting a wave of economic relief driven by President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy, new trade deals and the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.”
Speaking on Meet the Press, he said Americans should feel the first real signs of improvement next year; a message sharply at odds with public polling showing widespread frustration over the cost of living.
Bessent: “Very, Very Optimistic” About Non-Inflationary Growth
Bessent emphasized that the administration has “set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy” in 2026.
He argued that a blend of tariff reforms, new tax cuts and fresh trade agreements will help rebuild confidence and normalize price levels.
Housing and Interest-Rate Sectors Are in Recession; But the Whole Economy Isn’t, He Says
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett previously described “pockets” of recession, especially in housing and other rate-sensitive areas.
Bessent agreed that these sectors are struggling, but rejected claims that the wider economy is slipping toward contraction.
Voters Disagree: Two-Thirds Say Trump Has Fallen Short on the Economy
An NBC News poll this month showed that two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration is failing on the economy and cost of living.
The University of Michigan’s consumer survey released on Friday also showed frustration among consumers about higher prices.
Despite Bessent’s upbeat tone, Americans continue to report ongoing financial strain from high prices, tight housing markets and elevated borrowing costs.
Tariffs “Have Nothing to Do” With Inflation, Bessent Claims
When pressed about rising prices, Bessent insisted that tariffs aren’t the cause.
He argued that services inflation, not goods inflation, is responsible; and noted that goods inflation “has actually been flat.”
“First of all, Kristen, if you look at the data, that imported goods, the inflation has actually been flat. Inflation is up because of the service economy and services. So that has nothing to do with tariffs,” Bessent said.
This follows the administration’s decision to roll back tariffs on more than 200 imported food products to help cut grocery costs.
Why Roll Back Tariffs If They Help Consumers?
Asked why the administration is cutting tariffs if they supposedly lower prices, Bessent pointed to months-long trade deals with Latin American partners.
He said these agreements; not the rollback are driving grocery price moderation, especially for items like coffee, bananas and beef.
Inflation “Hasn’t Gone Up,” Bessent Says; Even as CPI Shows the Opposite
Despite CPI rising to 3% in September (up from 2.3% in April), Bessent doubled down on his claim that inflation “hasn’t gone up.”
He pointed to falling energy prices and predicted broader declines as the administration continues pushing affordability measures.
Inflation Higher in Democratic States, Bessent Says
The secretary claimed inflation is 0.5% higher in Democrat-run states, attributing the gap to heavier regulation. He said further deregulation will help lower prices in 2026.
Republicans’ “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Will Kick In During 2026
Bessent said the domestic policy package passed this summer; which includes tax reforms, new incentives for workers, and support for manufacturing will generate substantial tax refunds early in 2026.
Key provisions include:
No tax on overtime
No tax on tips
Partial Social Security tax cuts for some seniors
Deductible auto loans
Hassett Predicts a “Blockbuster 2026”
Kevin Hassett forecast that 2026 will be “an absolute blockbuster year,” despite a temporary growth slowdown due to the shutdown.
He expects U.S. manufacturing hiring to increase and GDP growth to rebound sharply.
Trade Deals Expected to Spark New Factory Openings
Bessent said a “rash of trade deals” negotiated over the past year will lead to new plant openings and increased domestic production; helping offset the drag from earlier tariff-related disruptions.
Shutdown Delivered an $11 Billion Permanent Hit
The recent 43-day government shutdown; the longest in U.S. history, permanently shaved $11 billion off the U.S. economy, Bessent said.
Still, he insisted that long-term growth prospects remain strong and will “snap back” as interest rates ease and tax adjustments take hold.
Filibuster Fight: Bessent Calls for Republicans to End It
In an unusual departure from economic policy, Bessent called on Republicans to abolish the Senate filibuster if Democrats trigger another shutdown.
Democrats “haven’t been able to stop President Trump in the courts,” he argued and therefore used the shutdown to inflict economic harm.
Healthcare Cost Relief Coming “This Week”
Bessent said the administration will soon announce measures aimed at reducing healthcare costs; though he offered no specifics.
Senior officials previously hinted that insurance premiums and prescription prices would be the focus.
What Americans Can Expect in 2026
According to Bessent, the picture for 2026 includes:
Lower inflation driven by energy and trade deals
Larger tax refunds
New manufacturing jobs
Easing interest rates and a housing recovery
A return to stable, long-term growth
Whether voters ultimately feel that rebound or buy the administration’s optimism on “no recession” ; remains the real political test ahead.
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Treasury Hikes I Bond Rate to 4.03%, Yet Fixed Portion Drops — Here’s What It Means for Savers
The U.S. Treasury has announced a new 4.03% rate for Series I savings bonds, slightly higher than the previous 3.98%. But beneath the bump lies a subtle setback: the fixed-rate portion has slipped to 0.9% from 1.1%. That quiet change could reduce long-term returns for investors hoping to lock in inflation-protected income, even as I bonds remain one of the safest options for conservative savers.
Treasury Hikes I Bond Rate to 4.03%, Yet Fixed Portion Drops — Here’s What It Means for Savers
New Trump Order Lets 401(k) Hold Crypto and Private Equity. Is It a Retirement Revolution or a Trap?
In a move that could reshape retirement planning for millions, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday allowing alternative investments like private equity, cryptocurrencies, and real estate to be included in 401(k) plans. The change marks a dramatic shift in policy, potentially opening the $12.2 trillion retirement savings market to high-growth assets previously off-limits to everyday Americans.
New Trump Order Lets 401(k) Hold Crypto and Private Equity. Is It a Retirement Revolution or a Trap?
Millions Could Miss Out on a New $1,000 Federal Retirement Match. Check If You Qualify
Beginning in 2027, millions of lower- and moderate-income savers will qualify for what financial researchers are bluntly calling “free money.” The new federal Saver’s Match; created under the 2022 SECURE 2.0 Act will replace today’s underused Saver’s Credit with a far more powerful benefit: up to $1,000 deposited directly into your retirement account every year. Morningstar’s early modeling suggests that eligible participants could see retirement wealth jump as much as 12%, a remarkable return for a program few Americans have even heard of.
Millions Could Miss Out on a New $1,000 Federal Retirement Match. Check If You Qualify
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John Dealbreuin came from a third world country to the US with only $1,000 not knowing anyone; guided by an immigrant dream. In 12 years, he achieved his retirement number.
He started Financial Freedom Countdown to help everyone think differently about their financial challenges and live their best lives. John resides in the San Francisco Bay Area enjoying nature trails and weight training.
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Personal Capital: This is a free tool John uses to track his net worth on a regular basis and as a retirement planner. It also alerts him wrt hidden fees and has a budget tracker included.
Platforms like Yieldstreet provide investment options in art, legal, real estate, structured notes, venture capital, etc. They also have fixed-income portfolios spread across multiple asset classes with a single investment with low minimums of $10,000.
