Social Security’s 2032 deadline is approaching. Could retirees face a $500 monthly loss without congressional action?
A new legislative proposal would create a bipartisan commission to address the long-term finances of Social Security and Medicare. Supporters say the effort could help lawmakers find practical solutions, but critics warn that another commission could delay action as automatic benefit cuts approach.
U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis, a Florida Republican, has reintroduced the Commission on Sustaining Medicare and Social Security Act. The bill would establish an independent, bipartisan commission of experts tasked with reviewing the programs’ finances and developing recommendations for Congress.
The commission would evaluate policy options designed to preserve the long-term financial stability of Social Security and Medicare. It also would examine whether the programs’ current structures adequately reflect the needs of beneficiaries and future generations.
“Medicare and Social Security represent a sacred promise to America’s seniors, disabled individuals and working families who have paid into these programs throughout their lives,” Bilirakis said in a press statement. “We have a moral responsibility to preserve and strengthen these vital programs, not only for today’s beneficiaries but for future generations as well. The longer we wait to address these challenges, the fewer options we will have and the more difficult the solutions will become.”
Social Security’s financial outlook is deteriorating
The proposal comes as the Social Security Trustees prepare to release their annual report on the program’s financial condition. Social Security provides benefits to more than 70 million retired workers, people with disabilities and other beneficiaries.
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which pays monthly benefits to retired workers, their families and survivors of deceased workers, is projected to face insolvency and automatic benefit cuts in 2032, according to Social Security Chief Actuary Karen Glenn and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The CBO is a nonpartisan federal agency that provides Congress with independent analysis of budgetary and economic issues. Its projections have reinforced concerns that lawmakers face a narrowing window to address Social Security’s funding gap.
Under current law, Social Security cannot pay out more in benefits than it receives in revenue once its trust fund is exhausted. The result could be an immediate reduction in benefits for retirees and other recipients.
According to a report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), beneficiaries could face an estimated 24% cut when the trust fund is depleted. Applying that reduction to current state-level benefit data, the CRFB estimated that the average monthly cut could range from $459 to $556 across the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
The average Social Security check for retired workers was $2,081 as of April, according to the Social Security Administration. A reduction of that size could significantly affect retirees who rely on Social Security for housing, food, health care and other essential expenses.
Reduced payouts but the program is not going bankrupt
Although the projected trust-fund exhaustion date has raised alarm, Social Security is not expected to disappear. The program has never missed a payment in its roughly 90-year history.
However, once the trust fund is exhausted, the program would be limited to paying benefits supported by incoming revenue under current law. That is why the projected insolvency date is generally associated with automatic benefit reductions rather than the complete end of Social Security.
Congress would need to act to strengthen the program’s finances and prevent those cuts. Last year, the Social Security Trustees projected insolvency in 2033, but subsequent policy changes, including provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, have affected the program’s overall financial outlook.
What the proposed commission would examine
Under Bilirakis’s proposal, the commission would review the financial outlooks for Social Security and Medicare, evaluate policy options and provide Congress with recommendations aimed at keeping both programs sustainable.
The legislation would not itself implement a benefit change or tax increase. Instead, it would create a formal process for experts from both parties to study the challenges and recommend potential reforms.
The commission also would evaluate whether the current formula for calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments accurately reflects the financial realities facing seniors, including inflation.
Could a different COLA formula help seniors?
Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is currently calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W.
Some senior advocates argue that CPI-W does not adequately reflect the spending patterns of older Americans. Retirees may devote a larger share of their income to expenses such as housing and health care, which can rise faster than other consumer costs.
Advocates have proposed using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or CPI-E, instead. That measure places greater emphasis on categories such as medical care and housing. Supporters say it could produce more accurate adjustments for seniors, although changing the formula would also affect the program’s finances.
Critics say Congress already knows the available options
Not everyone believes another commission is the right solution. Nancy Altman, president of the advocacy group Social Security Works, called the proposal “a waste of time.”
“Everyone knows the options. Congress could act tomorrow on Social Security if they did what the American people want, which is to protect and expand benefits by making the wealthiest pay in on all of their income,” said Altman.
One option frequently discussed by Social Security advocates is raising or eliminating the taxable maximum on earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes. In 2026, the taxable maximum is $184,500, meaning earnings above that threshold are not subject to Social Security payroll taxes.
Altman also criticized the possibility that a commission could be used to delay decisions or advance unpopular reforms.
“Fast-tracked commissions and similar gimmicks are just efforts to avoid political accountability and enact what the American people don’t want — any plan that includes even a penny of benefit cuts,” Altman said.
Bilirakis argues that bipartisan cooperation has worked before. He pointed to the early 1980s, when President Ronald Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neill worked across party lines to address Social Security’s financial challenges.
The reforms adopted during that period included gradually raising the full retirement age to 67 for people born in 1960 or later. The changes were part of a broader effort to improve the program’s finances and extend its solvency.
“By bringing together experts from across the political spectrum, we can remove partisan politics from the conversation and focus on practical, responsible solutions,” Bilirakis said. “We have done this before. In the early 1980s, President Ronald Reagan and [House] Speaker Tip O’Neill worked across party lines to preserve Social Security through a similar commission process. Their efforts succeeded because they put the American people ahead of politics. I believe we can do so again.”
The central question is whether Congress will act
The proposed commission reflects the growing pressure on lawmakers to address Social Security and Medicare before financial problems translate into automatic reductions or higher costs for beneficiaries.
Supporters see a bipartisan commission as a way to bring experts together, reduce partisan gridlock and develop a comprehensive strategy. Critics argue that the financial challenges are already well understood and that Congress should act rather than create another study group.
With the projected 2032 insolvency date approaching, the debate is increasingly focused on whether a commission could build the consensus needed for reform; or whether it would simply postpone difficult decisions.
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John Dealbreuin came from a third world country to the US with only $1,000 not knowing anyone; guided by an immigrant dream. In 12 years, he achieved his retirement number.
He started Financial Freedom Countdown to help everyone think differently about their financial challenges and live their best lives. John resides in the San Francisco Bay Area enjoying nature trails and weight training.
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